Pattern Recognition
Still no rain in Central Ohio. Being spared the task of mowing the grass is somewhat of a relief, but I’d prefer some rain, please. Not much chance of precipitation in the days ahead, I’m afraid.
Humans’ ability to recognize patterns, pairing these observations with our past experiences gives us the ability to anticipate future events. Whether it’s avoiding a lion attack in the Serengeti, or identifying a great stock investment, we use our brains to both avoid disaster and capitalize on opportunity. First-mover advantage is real, but carries the risk of being wrong. I’m reminded of the phrase “The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.”
This ability often proves itself to be harmful. Scam artists take advantage of this trait, mimicking certain patterns (be they visual, numerical or verbal) to lure their targets into taking actions that are against their self-interest. This simple IF/THEN rubric of “If you see pattern X, then you should anticipate outcome Y” has led many of us astray, resulting in large and small damages.
So how do we know when to trust our instinct, and rely on the prediction that a given pattern might suggest? First, we should recognize the environment in which we are noticing the pattern - how stable is it? The more stable the environment, the more likely the pattern can be viewed as reliable. I would argue that most decision-making environments today are far less stable than they once were. The information overload that social media and light speed communications heaps on us makes decision-making today much more challenging - because inaccurate information flows as freely as accurate info.
Our personal biases skew things further. When we have a strong preference for a particular outcome, we become vulnerable to confirmation bias. We start “connecting the dots” whether the dots are there to be connected, or not. I’ve discussed such biases before, and they are closely related to this human ability to recognize patterns. With the volume of information that is being generated every minute, there is no shortage of false dots to connect when you really want something to be true.
The COVID pandemic offers a great example of an environment with lots of conflicting information, lots of people who passionately wanted certain things to be true, and lots of decisions that might not have been made under different circumstances.
Our ability to recognize patterns is both a blessing and a curse. It is probably a good practice to scan the current news environment on a regular basis, actively looking for patterns that may be leading people astray, so that we ourselves can avoid being misled. I currently view most coverage of electoral integrity with extra scrutiny, and suggest the same for you. There are lots of people sitting in federal prison right now based on reliance on poor information leading up to and after the 2020 presidential election. I would hate to see a repeat of this particular pattern.
The sheer volume of information flow is unlikely to slow, and the average quality of information is unlikely to rise any time soon. It will be our personal ability to focus on higher-quality sources, and recognize our own internal leanings to avoid letting observed patterns from leading us astray.
Sunday Supper
Speaking of pattern recognition, I’ve been writing these weekly essays with recipe recommendations long enough that I absolutely feel repetitive. Recognizing this, I am making the choice to lean in to the classics rather than always seeking out some novel new approach to food or cooking. I’m sure some new stuff will catch my eye, but hopefully only when it is worthy of trial. With this said, it’s really hard to go wrong with a slow-roasted pork shoulder on a Sunday afternoon. Pairing this with this Kale Salad with Apples and Cheddar would be a wonderful combination. We’ll save the pumpkin-spices and roasted root vegetables for when the weather truly turns Fall-like.
Sunday Music
Gillian Welch and David Rawlings have a new album out, and it is wonderful. This extended performance and interview of the duo will give you a good sense of just how great it is. Enjoy!
If you know anyone who might like this essay, please share it with them.
Have a great week ahead! Offer support to others. Make good use of this day. And let me know how I can help.
Peace & Love,